Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Naked Oats in China

作者：Zhenwei Yang, Xujing Yang, Yuheng Huang, Yalin Zhang, Yao Guo, Meichen Feng, Mingxing Qin, Ning Jin, Muhammad Amjad, Chao Wang, Meijun Zhang, Wude Yang · 发表于：Agronomy · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/agronomy15020362 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Isotope Analysis in Ecology、Odor and Emission Control Technologies

Naked oats, a significant minor cereal crop in China popular for its nutrient richness, have experienced a surge in production in recent years, fueled by the escalating demand for wholesome healthy food. However, the dispersed and disorganized cultivation plan of naked oats poses a significant constraint on its industrial progression. Considering the dual influence of cultivation, management techniques, and global climate change on the production of naked oats, this study explores the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution and yield of this cereal crop. Leveraging CMIP6 climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-ESM2-1) and an optimized MaxEnt model (RM = 0.5, FC = LQ), we simulated potential climate-suitable zones for naked oats from 1990 to 2020 and forecasted alterations under various emission scenarios from 2021 to 2100. The model achieved an average accuracy test with high value (AUC = 0.945) in predicting suitable areas; with precipitation seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) (bio15, 21.70%) and topsoil pH (H2O) (T_PH_H2O, 21.00%) as key factors, both climate and soil properties have a greater influence. Simulation results showed that the climatically suitable area for naked oats increased under all scenarios, with the largest increase in the optimal growing area under ssp126 in the 2030s. The increase was 3.93% with an area of 0.77 × 106 km2. The study also compared the data from the main producing counties of naked oats in Shanxi Province fr...