Potential Distribution Prediction of Terminalia chebula Retz. in China Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

作者：Zhanghong Dong, Hua Jiang, Wei Zhang, Jianhua Wu, Yanping Yang, Tao Yang, Jiangping Zhao, Cunzhen Luo, Xiaoxia Yang, Guilin Li · 发表于：Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1002/ece3.70908 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Animal and Plant Science Education

ABSTRACT Climate change in the future could potentially expand, shrink, or alter the habitats of numerous species, leading to changes in their spatial distributions. Predicting suitable areas for cultivating medicinal plants through modeling has become an effective tool for assessing site suitability and conserving medicinal plant resources. Utilizing GIS and MaxEnt model, we predicted the spatial distribution of Terminalia chebula Retz. in China for the current and for the future (2050s and 2070s) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representative concentration pathways. In this study, we utilized 73 occurrence records and incorporated eight environmental factors from WorldClim for the modeling process. The findings revealed that the evaluation of the model's performance was based on the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). All AUC values exceeded 0.9, classifying these models as “Excellent.” Additionally, the jackknife test analysis revealed that the main influential variables were bio11 and bio4. Under the present climate conditions, the estimated total suitable habitat for T. chebula is approximately 29.14 × 10 4 km 2 , representing around 2.78% of China's total land area. Within these suitable regions, high suitability, medium suitability, and low suitability areas make up 0.39%, 0.54%, and 1.85% of the total area, respectively. According to future climate, the potential growth range of T. chebula is expected to expand due to climate variabi...