Sensitivity assessment and simulation of ecosystem services in response to land use change in arid regions: Empirical evidence from Xinjiang, China

作者：Xiaoyun Li, Chunsheng Wu · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113150 · 被引用次数：23 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing and Land Use、Environmental Changes in China

• Response of ecosystem services to land use change in arid regions is investigated. • Modified equivalent factor method and future land use simulation are combined. • Ecosystem service value (ESV) shows a fluctuating pattern with a downward trend. • ESV is more sensitive to water body and less to construction and cultivated lands. • The paper enhances understanding of human-environment interaction in arid regions. Ecosystem services are essential for human life, but they have undergone significant degradation in recent decades, mainly due to human-induced land use change. This research focuses on Xinjiang, the largest and most typical arid region in China, where ecosystem services are particularly sensitive to land use change. An improved framework for assessing and simulating ecosystem services combining a modified equivalent factor method, a future land use simulation (FLUS) model, and a cross-sensitivity analysis is proposed. The main results are obtained as follows: (1) During 1980 and 2020, construction land and cultivated land expanded by 115.66% and 47.18%, respectively, primarily owing to intensive socio-economic activities. The expense was the losses of forest land and grassland, with reductions of 5.84% and 4.15%, respectively. Besides, the water body expanded slightly, primarily owing to climate change. (2) The total ecosystem service value (ESV), despite a 3.2% rise during the research period, exhibited a fluctuating pattern as a result of frequent changes in lan...