Risk effects of environmental factors on human brucellosis in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, 2014–2023

作者：Di Wu, Xuji Shen, Quan Zhou, Jing Zhou, Rongwei Fu, Chang Wang, Chang Wang, Yuhua Ma, Chenchen Wang, Chenchen Wang · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-86889-w · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Brucella: diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment、Zoonotic diseases and public health、Climate Change and Health Impacts

The context of rapid global environmental change underscores the pressing necessity to investigate the environmental factors and high-risk areas that contribute to the occurrence of brucellosis. In this study, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to analyze the factors influencing brucellosis in the Aksu Prefecture from 2014 to 2023. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was employed to investigate the lagged effect of meteorological factors on the occurrence of brucellosis. A total of 17 environmental factors were identified as affecting the distribution of brucellosis to varying degrees. The largest contributing was the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), followed by gross domestic product (GDP), and then meteorological factors such as average temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve demonstrated that the MaxEnt model exhibited a high degree of predictive efficacy, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.921. The impact of high temperature (25℃ with a 2-month lag, RR = 3.130, 95% CI 1.642 ~ 5.965), low relative humidity (28% with a 2.5-month lag, RR = 1.795, 95% CI 1.298 ~ 2.483), and low wind speed (1.9 m/s with a 0-month lag, RR = 2.408, 95% CI 1.360 ~ 4.264) are the most significant meteorological factors associated with the incidence of brucellosis. The trends in the impact of extreme meteorological conditions on the spread of brucellosis were found to be generally cons...