Adapting distribution patterns of desert locusts, Schistocerca gregaria in response to global climate change

作者：Xiao Chang, Shiqian Feng, Farman Ullah, Yuan Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yujia Qin, John Nderitu, Yingying Dong, Wenjiang Huang, Zehua Zhang, Xiongbing Tu · 发表于：Bulletin of Entomological Research · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1017/s0007485324000440 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior、Neurobiology and Insect Physiology Research

Abstract The desert locust ( Schistocerca gregaria ) is a destructive migratory pest, posing great threat to over 60 countries globally. In the backdrop of climate change, the habitat suitability of desert locusts is poised to undergo alterations. Hence, investigating the shifting dynamics of desert locust habitats holds profound significance in ensuring global agricultural resilience and food security. In this study, we combined the maximum entropy modelling and geographic information system technology to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and habitat adaptability of desert locusts. The results indicate that the suitable areas for desert locusts (0.2976 × 10 8 km 2 ) are concentrated in northern Africa and southwestern Asia, accounting for 19.97% of the total global land area. Key environmental variables affecting the desert locust distribution include temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, average temperature of February, and precipitation of the driest month. Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 climate scenarios, potential suitable areas for desert locusts are estimated to increase from 2030 (2021–2040) to 2090 (2081–2100). By 2090, highly suitable areas for SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 are projected to be 0.0606 × 10 8 and 0.0891 × 10 8 km 2 , respectively, reflecting an expansion of 1.84 and 2.77% compared to existing ones. These research findings provide a theoretical basis for adopting preventi...