Global, regional, and national trends in colorectal cancer burden from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040

作者：Tao Zhang, Yuchen Guo, Binxu Qiu, Xianyu Dai, Yifei Wang, Xueyuan Cao · 发表于：Frontiers in Oncology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3389/fonc.2024.1466159 · 被引用次数：56 · 研究领域：Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection、Global Cancer Incidence and Screening、Colorectal Cancer Surgical Treatments

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignancy with notable recent shifts in its burden distribution. Current data on CRC burden can guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies for efficient resource allocation. Methods: This study utilized data from the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study. Initially, a series of descriptive statistics were performed on the incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CRC. Percentage changes and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were then calculated to understand the trends in CRC disease burden. Decomposition and frontier analyses were conducted, and finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict changes in ASRs up to 2040. Results: The GBD 2021 estimates indicate a significant increase in the global incident cases, deaths, and DALYs of CRC from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased (AAPC: 0.2), while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC: -0.72) and age-standardized DALYs rate (AAPC: -0.73) decreased. Males bore a higher disease burden than females, though the trends in disease burden changes were similar for both sexes. Although developed regions had higher incident cases, deaths, and DALYs, they showed more significant declines in ASRs. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were the primary drivers of the increased disease...