Predicting invasion success of naturalized cultivated plants in China

作者：Bi‐Cheng Dong, Ran Dong, Qiang Yang, Nicole L. Kinlock, Fei‐Hai Yu, Mark van Kleunen · 发表于：Journal of Applied Ecology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1111/1365-2664.14873 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Rangeland and Wildlife Management、Plant and animal studies

Abstract Plant invasions pose significant threats to native ecosystems, human health, and global economies. However, the complex and multidimensional nature of factors influencing plant invasions makes it challenging to predict and interpret their invasion success accurately. Using a robust machine learning algorithm, random forest, and an extensive suite of characteristics related to environmental niches, species traits, and propagule pressure, we developed a classification model to predict the invasion success of naturalized cultivated plants in China. Based on the final optimal model, we evaluated the relative importance of individual and grouped variables and their prediction performance. Our study identified key individual variables within each of three groupings: climatic suitability and native range size (environmental niches), phylogenetic distance to the closest native taxon and vegetative propagation mode (species traits), and the number of botanical gardens and provinces where species were cultivated (propagule pressure). Remarkably, when grouped variables were evaluated, the relative importance of grouped variables increased dramatically—by 13.5–17.7 times—compared with the cumulative importance of individual variables within a category. However, the relative importance of one category was primarily due to the number of variables within each category rather than its inherent characteristics. Synthesis and applications . Our findings emphasize the necessity of deve...