Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on ischemic stroke burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021

作者：Fangqun Cheng, Peiyu Cheng, Shudong Xie, Hai‐Ling Wang, Ying Tang, Ying Liu, Zhuo Xiao, Guixiang Zhang, Guangxiong Yuan, Ke Wang, Can Feng, Ying Zhou, Hong Xia, Yan Wang, Yuhang Wu · 发表于：BMC Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12889-025-21310-9 · 被引用次数：25 · 研究领域：Acute Ischemic Stroke Management、Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research、Intracerebral and Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Research

BACKGROUND: Ischemic stroke, accounting for 85% of stroke cases, leads to severe disabilities and increased mortality. Its global incidence rose by 87.55% from 1990 to 2019, posing significant health and economic burdens. The BRICS-plus nations-Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and five others-represent a large global population, presenting unique public health challenges. This study aims to evaluate the epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of ischemic stroke across BRICS-plus nations in a timely manner. METHODS: Data on the number, all-age rate, age-standardized rate, and relative change in ischemic stroke disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1992 to 2021 within BRICS-plus were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Relationships between the DALYs rate and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were evaluated using Pearson correlation analyses. Additionally, age-period-cohort modeling was employed to estimate net drift, local drift, age, period, and cohort effects over the past three decades. RESULTS: From 1992 to 2021, total DALYs due to ischemic stroke increased by 47.14%, while the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 33.79%. All BRICS-plus countries exhibited a declining trend in the age-standardized DALYs rate over the past three decades. Egypt reported the highest age-standardized DALYs rate (2,462.60 per 100,000 population) in 2021, whereas the most substantial reduction of 59.37% was observed in Brazil. The annual ...