Forest dynamics and responses to climate change and human activities in the arid and semiarid regions of the Altai Mountains, China

作者：Liancheng Zhang, Guli Jiapaer, Tao Yu, Hongwu Liang, Bojian Chen, Kaixiong Lin, Tongwei Ju, Philippe De Maeyer, Tim Van de Voorde · 发表于：Journal of Plant Ecology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1093/jpe/rtaf001 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Tree-ring climate responses

Abstract Understanding the driving mechanisms of forest changes is of great significance for developing effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystems. This study used Theil–Sen median trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, contribution rate decomposition, partial least squares, geodetector and residual analysis to explore the impact of climate change and human activities on the forest coverage area and NDVI of the Altai Mountains. Results show that changes in forest cover are driven by both forest management policies and climate change. Among them, forest management policy is the main factor. However, there are differences in the driving mechanisms in different altitude zones: in the alpine and subalpine zones, the promoting effects of natural death and climate change bring the forest coverage area toward a dynamic balance, while under the combined effects of human activities and climate change, the forest coverage area in the low mountain zones shows an expansion trend. For forest NDVI, the analysis results of the six scenarios show that the joint action of climate change and human activities promotes the growth of forest NDVI in the largest proportion (50.20%); the impact of climate change on forest NDVI is greater than that of human activities, and most of it is a promotion effect (30.28%). Forest degradation is mainly caused by human activities (19.39%), especially in the edge areas of the forest. Among climate fa...