Identify priority protected areas for biodiversity conservation adapting to future climate and land cover changes

作者：Ruixue Liu, Huilin Kong, Qixuan Wang, Yun Li · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.113068 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Species Distribution and Climate Change

• An integrated modeling approach to identify PPAs was proposed. • Changes of PPAs were explored under the effects of climate and land cover changes. • The conservation value of PPAs will diminish in the future. • Climate and land cover changes will reduce the effectiveness of existing PAs. • Biodiversity conservation strategies to respond to future changes were suggested. Biodiversity, essential for sustainable development, faces threats from climate and land cover changes, which are the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. While previous studies have proposed approaches to identify priority protected areas (PPAs) for biodiversity conservation and simulated regional biodiversity responses to climate change or land cover change, however, they often fail to accurately identify PPAs and neglect the combined effects of climate and land cover changes on biodiversity. This study fills these gaps by proposing an integrated modeling approach with MaxEnt, InVEST, and Zonation to identify PPAs by prioritizing rare and endangered species, and exploring the spatial–temporal dynamics of these PPAs under the combined effects of climate and land cover changes from 2020 to 2050 by predicting land cover dynamics under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Conservation gaps are revealed by spatial overlay analyses between these PPAs and existing protected areas. The spatial pattern of PPAs in Shenzhen is concentrated in the southeast with poor connecti...