Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas

作者：Paul C. Cross, Jonathan D. Cook, Eric K. Cole · 发表于：Scientific investigations report · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3133/sir20245119b · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Wildlife Ecology and Conservation、Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies、Rangeland and Wildlife Management

supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (Erxleben, 1777; elk) and Bison bison (Linnaeus, 1758; American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk.U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans.This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models.Our modeling results highlight a shortversus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives.Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission.The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500).No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd.The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compa...