Projected costs of long-term care for older people in England: The impacts of housing quality improvements

作者：Bo Hu, Nicola Brimblecombe, Javiera Cartagena‐Farias, Wagner Silva Ribeiro · 发表于：Health Policy · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.healthpol.2025.105246 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies、Global Health Care Issues、Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving

• Without housing interventions, formal care costs will be £40.8 billion by 2042. • Without housing interventions, informal/unpaid care costs will be £90.8 billion by 2042. • Without housing problems, formal care costs reduce by £2.8 billion in 2042. • Without housing problems, informal care costs reduce by £7.1 billion in 2042. • Cumulative savings of care costs are well beyond costs of housing improvement. Good quality housing is vitally important to public health. However, its economic consequences for the long-term care sector and implications for health policy have not been thoroughly examined. This study investigates the impacts of housing improvements on future costs of long-term care in England. Using data from two national surveys, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Health Survey for England (HSE), we combined a Markov model with a macrosimulation model to make projections of long-term care costs under a series of housing intervention scenarios. We project that, without housing interventions, formal care costs will increase from £22.4 billion to £40.8 billion and unpaid/informal care costs will increase from £55.2 billion to £90.8 billion between 2022 and 2042. In a scenario where all housing problems are remedied, formal and unpaid care costs in 2042 are projected to be £2.8 billion and £7.1 billion lower than the no intervention scenario, respectively. There are substantial synergies between health and housing policies. Well-designed housing im...