Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP ‐ RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

作者：Jing Liu, Kun Yang, Shaohua Zhang, Wenxia Zeng, Xiaofang Yang, Yan Rao, Yan Ma, Changyou Bi · 发表于：Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1002/ece3.70780 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Forest Management and Policy

Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global carbon cycle, thereby influencing global climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on CS for low-carbon development. Most studies model future LULC by adjusting change proportions, leading to overly subjective simulations. We integrated the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset to simulate future LULC in Yunnan under different SSP-RCP scenarios of climate and economic development. Within the new PLUS-InVEST-LUH2 framework, we systematically analyzed LULC alterations and their effects on CS from 1980 to 2040. Results demonstrated that: (1) Forestland had the highest CS, whereas built-up land and water showed minimal levels. Western areas boast higher CS, while the east has lower. From 1980 to 2020, CS continuously decreased by 29.55 Tg. In the wake of population increase and economic advancement, the area of built-up land expanded by 2.75 times. Built-up land encroaches on other land categories and is a key cause of the reduction in CS. (2) From 2020 to 2040, mainly due to an increase in forestland, CS rose to 3934.65 Tg under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, whereas under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, primarily due to a reduction in forestland and grassland areas, CS declined to 3800.86 Tg. (3) Forestland i...