Nonlinear response and driving mechanisms of ecological restoration project effectiveness to drought

作者：Xin Liu, Qi Wang, Xiaoyu Zhu, Yujun Zhang · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.113055 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Ecosystem dynamics and resilience

• An inverted U-shaped nonlinear effect of drought on ERP effectiveness was revealed. • ERP effectiveness produced a directional shift at an AI of 0.3673. • Threshold-based zoning and further exploring differences in impact mechanisms. • Socio-ecological factors altered drought’s impact on ERP effectiveness to various degrees. • Both direct and indirect impact effects varied widely across different partitions. Ecological Restoration Projects (ERP) are hypersensitive to drought stress. Nevertheless, a scarcity of cognition remains regarding how drought impacts ERP effectiveness and how socio-ecological factors drive this relationship. This study utilized a constraint line to explore the nonlinear response relationship between ERP effectiveness and drought in the Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone of Northern China (APTZNC) located in the arid and semi-arid regions. By identifying thresholds and employing PLS-SEM models, the study reveals the mechanisms by which socio-ecological factors influence the relationship between the two. The results showed that: (1) drought has a significant inverted ‘U’ shaped nonlinear effect on ERP effectiveness, with a threshold of 0.3673, dividing the arid region and moderately arid region. (2) The influence of socio-ecological factors on the relationship between ERP effectiveness and drought varies significantly across different arid environments. The number and intensity of impact pathways are much more pronounced in moderately arid regions than in...