A fuzzy logic approach within the DPSIR framework to address the inherent uncertainty and complexity of water security assessments

作者：Liang Yuan, Zhijie Zhou, Weijun He, Xia Wu, Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu, Juan Cheng, Linjiang Chai, Thomas Stephen Ramsey · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112984 · 被引用次数：30 · 研究领域：Water Systems and Optimization、Water resources management and optimization、Water Quality Monitoring Technologies

• A fuzzy logic evaluation model is established to deal with the uncertainty. • The control rules are set up to reflect the influence of relationships. • A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the indicators of the evaluation system. • The water security of MRB is at a safe status and faces various challenges. Quantitative and qualitative assessments are crucial means to understand the status of water security. In this paper, an index system for evaluating and diagnosing water security in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) was constructed based on the DPSIR model. A fuzzy logic evaluation model is established to deal with the nonlinearity and uncertainty of the evaluation index. In addition, the control rules of fuzzy reasoning are set up to reflect the influence relationship between evaluation indexes. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the evaluation method is reported and ways for water security improvement are proposed. The main findings are: (1) The water security score of MRB is 65.034 which is considered to be a safe status. China, Laos, and Thailand are water secure, while Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam are facing water security problems. (2) The growth of Driving forces (D) and Impacts (I) are related to the improvement of water security. Pressures (P) have a significant threshold effect on water security. States (S) improvement has a direct and sensitive promotional effect. Responses (R) and water security are positively correlated. (3) The driving force has the strongest p...