Global burden of tuberculous meningitis in children aged 0–14 years in 2019: a mathematical modelling study

作者：Karen Du Preez, Helen E. Jenkins, Leonardo Martínez, Silvia S. Chiang, Sicelo S. Dlamini, Mariia Dolynska, Andrii Aleksandrin, Julia Köbe, Stephen M. Graham, Anneke C. Hesseling, Jeffrey R. Starke, James A. Seddon, Peter J. Dodd · 发表于：The Lancet Global Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00383-8 · 被引用次数：32 · 研究领域：Infectious Diseases and Tuberculosis、Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology、Bacterial Infections and Vaccines

BACKGROUND: Tuberculous meningitis is fatal if untreated and can lead to lifelong neurological sequelae. However, to our knowledge, there are no data on the number of children affected by this disease. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden and attributable mortality of childhood tuberculous meningitis by WHO regions, age groups, treatment status, and HIV status in 2019. METHODS: We developed a Bayesian mathematical model to estimate the number of children aged 0-14 years who developed tuberculous meningitis, died from tuberculous meningitis, and did not die from tuberculous meningitis but had neurological sequelae in 2019. We reviewed the literature and used meta-analyses to quantify key parameters used as model inputs: risk of tuberculous meningitis after Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, tuberculous meningitis as a proportion of tuberculosis notification data (ie, routine surveillance data that countries report to WHO), and risk ratios for tuberculous-meningitis mortality by age group. We identified routine tuberculosis surveillance data from countries and literature that reported the proportion of notified childhood tuberculosis that was due to tuberculous meningitis. Country-level data were from Brazil; the USA; Ukraine; South Africa; and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which included 29 countries but was aggregated and considered as one site. We assumed tuberculosis notification was synonymous with detection and treatment, combined ag...