Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios

作者：Bingqian Zhao, Wenxin Zhang, Peiyan Wang, Ludovica D’Imperio, Yijing Liu, Bo Elberling · 发表于：Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110359 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology、Climate change and permafrost、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

• CoupModel captures CO2 and CH4 seasonal dynamics as experiments. • The fen site is a minor source of CH 4 and stays CO 2 -balanced over 7 years. • Warming experiments increased more CO 2 emissions than snow fence experiments. • Warmer climate will enhance the sink strength of CO 2 under SSP126 and SSP585. • High and low warming scenarios show insignificant change in the CH 4 budget. The Arctic is undergoing a shift toward a warmer and wetter climate. Recent experiments indicate that the carbon balance of subarctic wet tundra is sensitive to both summer warming and deeper snow. However, few studies have combined experimental data with process-oriented models to predict how the terrestrial carbon cycle will respond to future climate change. Here, we use CoupModel, a process-oriented model, to investigate CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics in a subarctic wet tundra ecosystem under two contrasting climate change scenarios over the 21 st century. Our findings show that the model successfully reproduced the treatment effects of warming on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes comparing to measurements from control, open top chambers and snow addition plots. For 2014–2020, the studied ecosystem functioned as a minor source of CH 4 and a neutral balance of CO 2 , resulting in the overall greenhouse gas emissions of 10.5 ± 79.1 g CO 2 -eq m -2 yr -1 . The calibrated model was used to predict CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes and their seasonal variations under future climate scenarios. By 2100, a warmer climate could enhanc...