Patterns and drivers of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 Western European countries

作者：Simon Galmiche, Camille Coustaury, Kelly Charniga, Rebecca Grant, Simon Cauchemez, Arnaud Fontanet, The Western European Covid-19 Excess Mortality Working Group, Brigitte Autran, Matthew Barnbrook, Henrique Barros, Paolo Bosetti, Lisa Brouwers, Natalia Bustos-Sierra, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Jean‐François Delfraissy, Christiane Diehl, Petter Elstrøm, Magnus Gisslén, Johanna Hanefeld, Niel Hens, Mary Horgan, Laëtitia Huiart, Yann Le Strat, Adrian Lison, Patrick Mallon, Sarah Kristine Nørgaard, Miquel Oliu‐Barton, Juliette Paireau, Emma Rourke, Julien Riou, F Simón, Tanja Stadler, Anders Tegnell, Alexander Ullrich, Pierre Van Damme, Susan van den Hof, Jaap van Dissel, Steven Van Gucht, Jacco Wallinga, Simon Whitfield, Yazdan Yazdanpanah · 发表于：BMC Global and Public Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1186/s44263-024-00103-z · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：COVID-19 and healthcare impacts、COVID-19 and Mental Health、Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy

BACKGROUND: Important differences in excess mortality between European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported. Understanding the drivers of these differences is essential to pandemic preparedness. METHODS: We examined patterns in age- and sex-standardized cumulative excess mortality in 13 Western European countries during the first 30 months of the COVID-19 pandemic and the correlation of country-level characteristics of interest with excess mortality. RESULTS: In a timeline analysis, we identified notable differences in seeding events, particularly in early 2020 and when the Alpha variant emerged, likely contributing to notable differences in excess mortality between countries (lowest in Denmark during that period). These differences were more limited from July 2021 onwards. Lower excess mortality was associated with implementing stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) when hospital admissions were still low in 2020 (correlation coefficient rho = 0.65, p = 0.03) and rapid rollout of vaccines in the elderly in early 2021 (rho = - 0.76, p = 0.002). Countries which implemented NPIs while hospital admissions were low tended to experience lower gross domestic product (GDP) losses in 2020 (rho = - 0.55, p = 0.08). Structural factors, such as high trust in the national government (rho = - 0.77, p = 0.002) and low ratio of population at risk of poverty (rho = 0.55, p = 0.05), were also associated with lower excess mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These results su...