Global, regional, and national burden of gastrointestinal cancers among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019, and burden prediction to 2040

作者：Jieyu Peng, Shu Huang, Xiaohong Wang, Xiaomin Shi, Huan Xu, Ping Wang, Qi Chen, Wei Zhang, Lei Shi, Peng Yan, Nanjun Wang, Xiaowei Tang · 发表于：BMC Public Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1186/s12889-024-20777-2 · 被引用次数：19 · 研究领域：Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection、Esophageal Cancer Research and Treatment、Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia research

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have heavily burdened public health. Few studies reported GI cancer burden among adolescents and young adults (AYA). To address this gap, we explored the burden of GI cancer among people aged 15-39. METHODS: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of rates was calculated by linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to predict the future burden. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 171,857 (95% uncertain interval [95% UI]: 157,092-187,974) new GI cancer cases with a rate of 5.79/100,000 (95% UI: 5.29-6.33) and 91,033 (95% UI: 83,156-99,399) deaths at a rate of 3.07/100,000 (95% UI: 2.80-3.35) among AYA. The number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were 722,573 (95% UI: 660,806-789,476) and 5,151,294 (95% UI: 4,706,065-56,188,77), with rates of 24.35/100,000 (95% UI: 22.27-26.60) and 173.57/100,000 (95% UI: 158.57-189.32) respectively. The overall rates of mortality (AAPC = -1.281, p < 0.001) and DALY (AAPC = -1.283, p < 0.001) of GI cancers declined during the past 30 years, while the incidence rate (AAPC = -0.270, p = 0.074) remained stable and the prevalence rate (AAPC = 1.066, p < 0.001) increased. The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) and pancreatic cancer increased, while those of stomach cancer (SC) and liver cancer (LC) declined. Among the 21 GBD regions, East Asia exhibited ...