Groundwater level predictions in the Thames Basin, London over extended horizons using Transformers and advanced machine learning models

作者：Ali J. Ali, Ashraf Ahmed, Maysam Abbod · 发表于：Journal of Cleaner Production · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.144300 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Hydrological Forecasting Using AI、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Flood Risk Assessment and Management

This study breaks new ground by using the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) method for groundwater level prediction, addressing the complex dynamics of the Thames Basin aquifer in England. Our research combines extensive hydrological data collected from the Thames Basin with advanced machine learning, where a complex network of rivers and streams substantially affects groundwater dynamics. Unlike previous studies, this research focuses on long-term forecasting with deep learning, offering, for the first time, a 60-day prediction horizon based on daily data. To rigorously examine the model performance and robustness on new, unseen data, we applied the walk-forward validation method and other matrices such as RMSE and R 2 coupled with the Holdout technique. The models used were Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Attention-based LSTM, LSTM with Bayesian optimisation, Attention-based LSTM with Bayesian optimisation and TFT. They were used on the basin's Chalk, Jurassic Limestone, and Lower greensand aquifers. Whilst both LSTM models were optimised using the Bayesian technique, TFT was applied for its inherent capability in complex time series. Our methodology processed historical groundwater and rainfall data from 2001 to 2023, accounting for the potential lag in aquifer response to the proximity of the river system. The dataset served as training, validation, and holdout for each model, focusing on capturing the dynamic temporal fluctuation. The results clearly showed the superiorit...