Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Austin Carter, Meixin Zhang, Khai Hoan Tram, Magdalene K Walters, Deepa Jahagirdar, Edmond D Brewer, Amanda Novotney, Dylan Lasher, Emmanuel Mpolya, Avina Vongpradith, Jianing Ma, Megan Verma, Tahvi Frank, Jiawei He, Sam Byrne, Christine Lin, Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez, Spencer A Pease, Haley Comfort, Erin A May, Yohannes Abate, Hedayat Abbastabar, Atef Abdelkader, Parsa Abdi, Meriem Abdoun, Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz, Hassan Abidi, Olumide Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Yonas Derso Abtew, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu‐Zaid, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Daniel A Adeyinka, Kishor Adhikari, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Saira Afzal, Shahin Aghamiri, Feleke Doyore Agide, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang‐Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Faisal Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Ibrar Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Mohammed Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Karolina Akinosoglou, Salah Al Awaidy, Hanadi Al Hamad, Amjad S Al Mosa, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Samer O Alalalmeh, Nazmul Alam, Noore Alam, Fahad Alanezi, Daniel Shewaye Alayu, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad, Adel Al‐Gheethi, Syed Shujait Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Abid Ali, Liaqat Ali, Waad Ali, Akram Al‐Ibraheem, Joseph Uy Almazan, Awais Altaf, Diala Altwalbeh, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Walid Al-Zyoud, Reza Amani, Tewodros Getnet Amera, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Abhishek Anil, AbdulAzeez Adeyemi Anjorin, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Saleha Anwar, Razique Anwer, Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel Anyabolo, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Geminn Louis Carace Apostol, Ali M. Ardekani, er Areda, Brhane Berhe Aregawi, Abdulfatai Aremu, Keivan Armani, Mulusew Andualem Asemahagn, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Tahira Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Haftu Asmerom, Maha Atout, Avinash Aujayeb, Hamzeh Awad, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Firayad Ayele, Sina Azadnajafabad, Shahkaar Aziz, B B Darshan, Giridhara R. Babu, Muhammad Badar, Saeed Bahramian, Abdulaziz Bako, Wondu Feyisa Balcha, Kiran Bam, Biswajit Banik, Mainak Bardhan, Till Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Zarrin Basharat, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Afisu Basiru, Mohammad‐Mahdi Bastan, Saurav Basu, Prapthi Persis Bathini, Kavita Batra, Ravi Batra, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Tahmina Begum, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Melaku Ashagrie Belete, Abel Cherkos Belete, Apostolos Beloukas, Alice A Beneke, Azizullah Beran, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Robert S. Bernstein, Kebede Beyene, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Keralem Anteneh Bishaw, Khushboo D Bisht, Trupti Bodhare, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Azizbek Boltaev, Hamed Borhany, Souad Bouaoud, Colin Brown, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Yasser Bustanji, Zahid A Butt, Chao Cao, Rosario Cárdenas, Muthia Cenderadewi, Joshua Chadwick, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Sandip Chakraborty, Rama Mohan Chandika, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Guangjin Chen, Patrick R Ching, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali G Choudhari, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Lim Teik Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Rosa A S Couto, Natália Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Bashir Dabo, Omid Dadras, Gizachew Worku Dagnew, Tukur Dahiru, Xiaochen Dai, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, José das Neves, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Mohsen Dashti, Fernando de la Hoz, Shayom Debopadhaya, Louisa Degenhardt, Iván Delgado‐Enciso, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Keshab Deuba, Amol S. Dhane, Sameer Dhingra, Daniel Díaz, Michael R Diaz, Delaney D Ding, Thanh Chi, Sushil Dohare, Deepa Dongarwar, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Savy Dsouza, Senbagam Duraisamy, Arkadiusz Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Abdelaziz Ed‐Dra, Hisham Atan Edinur, Ferry Efendi, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Iman El Sayed, Muhammed Elhadi, Chadi Eltaha, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Majid Eslami, Ugochukwu Anthony Eze, Ayesha Fahim, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Patrick Fazeli, Ginenus Fekadu, Nuno Ferreira, Belete Sewasew Firew, Florian Fischer, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Behzad Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, G Sridevi, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Gaidhane, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Aravind P. Gandhi, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Motuma Erena Getachew, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Ehsan Gholami, Nasim Gholizadeh, Mahsa Ghorbani, Artyom Gil, Alem Girmay, Mahaveer Golechha, Davide Golinelli, Alessandra C. Goulart, Anmol Goyal, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Sapna Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Awoke Derbie Habteyohannes, Dariush Haghmorad, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Rabih Halwani, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Zaim Haq, Harapan Harapan, Arief Hargono, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Md Saquib Hasnain, Shoaib Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Kamal Hezam, Mbuzeleni Hlongwa, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Praveen Hoogar, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli, Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie, Kiavash Hushmandi, Hong-Han Huynh, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Adalia Ikiroma, Kevin S Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Arnaud Iradukunda, Mustafa Alhaji Isa, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Ihoghosa Iyamu, J Vinothini, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Akhil Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Manthan D Janodia, Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani, Alelign Tasew Jema, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Ali Kabir, Md Awal Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Vidya Kadashetti, Feroze Kaliyadan, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Suthanthira Kannan S, Ibraheem M. Karaye, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Molly B Kassel, Gbenga A Kayode, Himanshu Khajuria, Nauman Khalid, Anees Ahmed Khalil, Faham Khamesipour, Gulfaraz Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Yusra Habib Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Zahra Khorrami, Majid Khosravi‎, Jagdish Khubchandani, Min Seo Kim, Jong Yeob Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Somayeh Komaki, Shivakumar KM Marulasiddaiah Kondlahalli, Parvaiz A Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vishnutheertha Kulkarni, Rakesh Kumar, Vijay Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Thao T. Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Seung Won Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Temesgen Leka Lerango, Ming‐Chieh Li, Virendra S Ligade, Stephen S Lim, Liknaw Workie Limenh, Xuefeng Liu, Run-Ben Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Arianna Maever Loreche, Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin, Zheng Feei, Azeem Majeed, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Hardeep Singh Malhotra, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Bishnu P. Marasini, Bernardo Alfonso Martínez-Guerra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Miquel Martorell, Roy Rillera Marzo, Navgeet Mathur, Anna Laura W McKowen, Hadush Negash Meles, Endalkachew Belayneh Melese, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Peter Meylakhs, Laurette Mhlanga, Irmina Maria Michałek, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Giuseppe Minervini, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Babak Moazen, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Sakineh Mohammad‐Alizadeh‐Charandabi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Hussen Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Fateme Montazeri, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Rohith Motappa, Vincent Mougin, Sumaira Mubarik, George Duke Mukoro, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Yanjinlkham Munkhsaikhan, B.V. Murlimanju, Fungai Musaigwa, Ghulam Mustafa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Pirouz Naghavi, Gurudatta Naik, Firzan Nainu, Mohammad Sadeq Najafi, Shumaila Nargus, Samidi Nirasha Kumari Navaratna, Muhammad Naveed, Vinod C Nayak, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Sabina O. Nduaguba, Chernet Tafere Negesse, Mohammad Hadi Nematollahi, Georges Nguefack‐Tsague, Dang Nguyen, Hien Quang Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Nasrin Nikravangolsefid, Vikram Niranjan, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Nawsherwan Not applicable, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Fred Nugen, Jerry John Nutor, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Kehinde Obamiro, Ismail Ayoade Odetokun, Onome Bright Oghenetega, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, Sylvester Reuben Okeke, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Andrew T Olagunju, Babayemi O. Olakunde, Oladotun Olalusi, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba, Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna Onwujekwe, Abdulahi Opejin Opejin, Michał Ordak, Verner N. Orish, Edgar Ortíz‐Brizuela, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Amel Ouyahia, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Claudia Palladino, Ashok Pandey, Leonidas D Panos, José Luis Paredes, Pragyan Paramita Parija, Romil R Parikh, Ava Pashaei, Maja Pasovic, Sangram Kishor Patel, Aslam Pathan, Shankargouda Patil, Shrikant Pawar, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Emmanuel Peprah, Prince Peprah, Marcos Pereira, Simone Perna, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Hoang Tran Pham, Julian David Pillay, Ramesh Poluru, Maarten J. Postma, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Jalandhar Pradhan, Prem Prakash, Thejeswar N N Prakasham, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Tina Priscilla, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Ibrahim Qattea, Asma Saleem Qazi, Raghu Radhakrishnan, Quinn Rafferty, Ibrar Rafique, Fakher Rahim, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mosiur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Shayan Rahmani, Nazanin Rahmanian, Mohammad Rahmanian, Vahid Rahmanian, Sathish Rajaa, Mahmoud M. Ramadan, Hazem Ramadan, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Pushkal Sinduvadi Ramesh, Kritika Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Mithun Rao, Sowmya J Rao, Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi, Devarajan Rathish, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Salman Rawaf, Elrashdy M. Redwan, Robert C. Reiner, Mohsen Rezaeian, Jefferson Antonio Buendía, Kevin T. Root, Allen G. Ross, Kunle Rotimi, Nitai Roy, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Cameron Sabet, Basema Ahmad Saddik, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Pooya Saeedi, Sher Zaman Safi, Rajesh Sagar, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Narjes Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Zahra Saif, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Nasir Salam, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed A. Saleh, Leili Salehi, Hossein Samadi Kafil, Abdallah M Samy, Rama Krishna Sanjeev, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Aswini Saravanan, Benn Sartorius, Anudeep Sathyanarayan, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Mansour Sedighi, Birhan Ewunu Semagn, Sabyasachi Senapati, Yashendra Sethi, Allen Seylani, Pritik A Shah, Samiah Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali Shamekh, Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran, Anas Shamsi, Mohd Shanawaz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Amin Sharifan, Javad Sharifi‐Rad, Shamee Shastry, Rekha R. Shenoy, Premalatha K Shetty, Mahabalesh Shetty, Pavanchand H Shetty, Desalegn Shiferaw, Reza Shirkoohi, Aminu Shittu, Sunil Shrestha, Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat, Emmanuel Edwar Siddig, Mark J. Siedner, Jasvinder A. Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Surjit Singh, Harmanjit Singh, Robert Sinto, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda Smith, Farrukh Sobia, Anton Sokhan, Shipra Solanki, Ranjan Solanki, Reed J D Sorensen, Sahabi Kabir Sulaiman, Łukasz Szarpak, Sree Sudha T Y, Mohammad Tabish, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Yasaman Taheri Abkenar, Jabeen Taiba, Iman M. Talaat, Mircea Tampa, Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi, Ker‐Kan Tan, Manoj Tanwar, Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang, Nuno Taveira, Gebrehiwot Teklay, Behailu Terefe Tesfaye, Enoch Teye‐Kwadjo, Ramna Thakur, Pugazhenthan Thangaraju, Rajshree Thapa, Rekha Thapar, Friedrich Thienemann, Joe Thomas, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Thang Huu Tran, Mai Thi Ngoc Tran, Alexander C. Tsai, Guesh Mebrahtom Tsegay, Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu, Arit Udoh, Irfan Ullah, Atta Ullah, Muhammad Umair, Muhammad Umar, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Sanaz Vahdati, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Shoban Babu Varthya, Tommi Vasankari, Georgios‐Ioannis Verras, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Anh Vo, Theo Vos, Mandaras Tariku Walde, Richard G. Wamai, Yanzhong Wang, Muhammad Waqas, Paul Ward, Gizachew Tadesse Wassie, Robert G Weintraub, Haftom Legese Weldetinsaa, Gebre Adhanom Weldu, Ronny Westerman, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Mesfin Agachew Woldekidan, Yen Jun Wong, Nigus Kassie Worku, Zenghong Wu, Xinsheng Wu, Sajad Yaghoubi, Gesila Endashaw Yesera, Saber Yezli, Siyan Yi, Arzu Yiğit, Dehui Yin, Yazachew Engida Yismaw, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Fathiah Zakham, Haijun Zhang, Jingya Zhang, Hanqing Zhao, Bin Zhu, Qingyuan Zhuang, Abzal Zhumagaliuly, Magdalena Zielińska, Zihao Liu, Yossef Teshome Zikarg, Mohammad Zoladl, Alimuddin Zumla, Samer H. Zyoud, Peng Zheng, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Mohsen Naghavi, Austin E Schumacher, Simon I Hay, Christopher J L Murray, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu · 发表于：The Lancet HIV · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2352-3018(24)00212-1 · 被引用次数：156 · 研究领域：HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions、HIV Research and Treatment、Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health

BACKGROUND: As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990-2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty...