The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

作者：Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben Booth, John P. Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris Jones, Colin Jones, Andrew D. King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, B. H. Samset, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sönke Zaehle · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024 · 被引用次数：42 · 研究领域：Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Climate variability and models、Climate Change Policy and Economics

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process repres...