National-level and state-level prevalence of overweight and obesity among children, adolescents, and adults in the USA, 1990–2021, and forecasts up to 2050

作者：Marie Ng, Xiaochen Dai, Rebecca M Cogen, Michael Abdelmasseh, Arash Abdollahi, Auwal Abdullahi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hana J Abukhadijah, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi, Danish Ahmad, Noah Ahmad, Ayman Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Ashley E Akrami, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Omar Al Ta’ani, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Wafa Ali Aldhaleei, Abdelazeem M. Algammal, Waad Ali, Akram Al‐Ibraheem, Saleh A. Alqahatni, Rami H. Al‐Rifai, Najim Z. Alshahrani, Mohammad Al‐Wardat, Hany Aly, Walid Al-Zyoud, Sohrab Amiri, Abhishek Anil, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Ali M. Ardekani, Demelash Areda, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Alok Atreya, Sina Azadnajafabad, Shahkaar Aziz, Peter Azzopardi, Giridhara R. Babu, Atif Amin Baig, Abdulaziz Bako, Kannu Bansal, Till Bärnighausen, Mohammad‐Mahdi Bastan, Maryam Bemanalizadeh, Azizullah Beran, Habtamu B. Beyene, Sonu Bhaskar, Cem Bilgin, Archie Bleyer, Hamed Borhany, Edward J. Boyko, Dejana Braithwaite, Dana Bryazka, Raffaele Bugiardini, Yasser Bustanji, Zahid A Butt, Mehtap Çakmak Barsbay, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Pamela Roxana Chacón-Uscamaita, Eeshwar K Chandrasekar, Vijay Kumar Chattu, An‐Tian Chen, Guangjin Chen, Gerald Chi, Patrick R Ching, So Mi Jemma Cho, Dong‐Woo Choi, Bryan Chong, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Karly Cini, Alyssa Columbus, Rosa A S Couto, Michael H Criqui, Natália Martins, Omar B. Da’ar, Omid Dadras, Zhaoli Dai, Samuel Demissie Darcho, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Díaz, Michael J. Diaz, Thanh Chi, Mahsa Dolatshahi, Mario D’Oria, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, Rajkumar Doshi, Robert Kokou Dowou, John Dube, Dorothea Dumuid, Arkadiusz Dziedzic, Abdel Rahman E’mar, Rabie Adel El Arab, Ibrahim Farahat El Bayoumy, Muhammed Elhadi, Chadi Eltaha, Luca Falzone, Hossein Farrokhpour, Patrick Fazeli, Valery L. Feigin, Ginenus Fekadu, Nuno Ferreira, Florian Fischer, Kate Francis, Muktar A Gadanya, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Delaram J. Ghadimi, Ehsan Gholami, Mahaveer Golechha, Davide Golinelli, Philimon Gona, Mahdi Gouravani, Ayman Grada, Ashna Grover, Avirup Guha, Rahul Gupta, Parham Habibzadeh, Nils Haep, Aram Halimi, Md. Kamrul Hasan, Md Saquib Hasnain, Simon I Hay, Wenqiang He, Jeffrey J. Hébert, Mehdi Hemmati, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Sorin Hostiuc, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, Hong-Han Huynh, Md. Rabiul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Louis Jacob, Abel Joseph, Sivesh K. Kamarajah, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Rami S. Kantar, Yeganeh Karimi, Sina Kazemian, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Praval Khanal, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Moawiah Khatatbeh, Moein Khormali, Jagdish Khubchandani, Sylvia Kiconco, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vijay Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Om Kurmi, Hanpeng Lai, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Munjae Lee, Seung Won Lee, Wei‐Chen Lee, An Li, Wei Li, Stephen S Lim, Jialing Lin, Paulina A Lindstedt, Xiaofeng Liu, Justin Lo, José Francisco López‐Gil, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Lisha Luo, Jay B. Lusk, Elham Mahmoudi, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Yosef Manla, Ramón Martínez, Yasith Mathangasinghe, Fernanda Penido Matozinhos, Steven McPhail, Hadush Negash Meles, George A. Mensah, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Tomislav Meštrović, Irmina Maria Michałek, GK Mini, Mohammad Mirza‐Aghazadeh‐Attari, Gabriele Mocciaro, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Ameen Mosa Mohammad, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Kaveh Momenzadeh, Sara Momtazmanesh, Fateme Montazeri, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Shane D. Morrison, Rohith Motappa, Erin C Mullany, Christopher J L Murray, Pirouz Naghavi, Soroush Najdaghi, Delaram Narimani Davani, Gustavo G. Nascimento, Zuhair S. Natto, Dang Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Nasrin Nikravangolsefid, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Fred Nugen, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Erin M O’Connell, Sylvester Reuben Okeke, Andrew T Olagunju, Omotola O Olasupo, Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba, Samuel M Ostroff, Abderrahim Oulhaj, Mayowa Owolabi, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Romil R Parikh, Seoyeon Park, Sungchul Park, Ava Pashaei, Gavin Pereira, Hoang Nhat Pham, Tom Pham, Anil K. Philip, Jalandhar Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Nicolaas P Pronk, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Alavi, Catalina Raggi, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Bita Rahmani, Mohammad Rahmanian, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Sowmya J Rao, Sina Rashedi, Ahmed Mustafa Rashid, Elrashdy M. Redwan, Taeho Greg Rhee, Mónica Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendía, Cameron Sabet, Siamak Sabour, Umar Saeed, Dominic Sagoe, Mohamed A. Saleh, Vijaya Paul Samuel, Abdallah M Samy, Aswini Saravanan, Monika Sawhney, Susan M. Sawyer, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Markus P. Schlaich, Art Schuermans, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Allen Seylani, Mahan Shafie, Nilay S. Shah, Muhammad Aaqib Shamim, Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran, Sadaf Sharfaei, Amin Sharifan, Anupam Kumar Sharma, Manoj Sharma, Aziz Sheikh, Rekha R. Shenoy, Premalatha K Shetty, Kenji Shibuya, Aminu Shittu, Kerem Shuval, Emmanuel Edwar Siddig, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Amanda Smith, Ranjan Solanki, Sameh S. M. Soliman, Yi Song, Soroush Soraneh, Kurt Straíf, Łukasz Szarpak, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Celine Tabche, Manoj Tanwar, Nathan Y Tat, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Aravind Thavamani, Thang Huu Tran, Domenico Tricò, Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Arit Udoh, Sana Ullah, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Sanaz Vahdati, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Azin Vakilpour, Jef Van den Eynde, Manish Vinayak, Kosala Weerakoon, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Asrat Arja Wolde, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Suowen Xu, Lin Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Arzu Yiğit, Dong Keon Yon, Chuanhua Yu, Chun-Wei Yuan, Michael Zastrozhin, Mohammed G M Zeariya, Claire Chenwen Zhong, Bin Zhu, Abzal Zhumagaliuly, Magdalena Zielińska, Sa’ed H. Zyoud, Jessica A. Kerr, Stein Emil Vollset, Emmanuela Gakidou · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01548-4 · 被引用次数：329 · 研究领域：Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet、Child and Adolescent Health、Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations

BACKGROUND: Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged 5-24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and projections for older adolescents (aged 15-24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC. METHODS: or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15-24 years) and adults aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates. FINDINGS: In 2021, an estimated 15·1 mi...