Space‐for‐time substitutions exaggerate urban bird–habitat ecological relationships

作者：Harold N. Eyster, Kai M. A. Chan, M. Fletcher, Brian Beckage · 发表于：Journal of Animal Ecology · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1111/1365-2656.14194 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

North American bird abundance has declined by 29% over the last 50 years. These continental population dynamics interact with local landscape changes to affect local bird diversity. Mitigating local declines in cities is particularly significant because (a) such declines greatly impact human-bird relationships since most people live in cities and (b) cities provide levers to create bird-friendly habitat, such as managing yards and gardens, street trees, and urban parks. Yet, the potential for cities to modify habitats to mitigate broader bird declines remains unclear. Studies have been stymied by the difficulty of assembling mutidecadal habitat-bird population datasets. Instead, studies have substituted space for time (e.g. used habitat associations across space at one time point to project future species abundance due to changing land use), but this method may fail amidst nonstationary environments of the Anthropocene. Here, we test the validity of space-for-time substitutions for explaining changes in bird abundance in a North American city over the past two decades by examining the degree to which these changes are explainable by changes in local landcover at multiple spatial scales. Specifically, we use longitudinal urban bird surveys of Metro Vancouver, BC, Canada from 1997 and 2020; deep learning models of remote sensing data to classify contemporaneous landcover; out-of-sample prediction and boosted regression trees to identify multiple spatial scales of landcover that...