Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

作者：Duo Ping Zhu, Yang Liu, Yong-Hua Li, Pei Huang, Bin Yao, Zhe Kong, Yangzhou Xiang · 发表于：Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1002/ece3.70503 · 被引用次数：14 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Plant and animal studies

ABSTRACT Climate change can significantly impact the ecological suitability and diversity of species. Pyrethrum tatsienense , a critically endangered species in China, requires a thorough understanding of its habitat distribution and the environmental factors that affect it in the context of climate change. The Maxent algorithm was used to examine the key factors influencing the distribution of P. tatsienense in China, using data from 127 species occurrences and environmental variables from the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid‐Holocene (MH), current, and future scenarios. The Maxent model was optimized utilizing the R package ENMeval, providing the most accurate predictions for suitable habitats across various scenarios. Results show that suitable regions for P. tatsienense encompass approximately 15.02% (14.42 × 10 5 km 2 ) of China, predominantly on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. The mean UV‐B of the highest month (UVB3: 39.7%), elevation (elev: 28.7%), and the warmest season of precipitation (Bio18: 17.4%) are the major limiting factors for suitable habitat. The optimal species distribution ranges are identified as > 7500 J m −2 day −1 for UVB3, 2700–5600 m for elev, and 150–480 mm for Bio18. Predictions for the historical climate indicate the presence of refugia at the junction of Sichuan, Tibet, and Qinghai. The MH predictions show an increase in climatic suitability for P. tatsienense compared to the LIG and LGM, with an expansion of suitable ar...