Depiction of Drought Over Africa in the Light of Changing Climate from CMIP6 Models

作者：Ibrahim Yahaya, Jian Zhou, Shan Jiang, Runhong Xu, Jinlong Huang, Buda Su, Cheng Jing, Fangdao Qiu, Tong Jiang · 发表于：Earth Systems and Environment · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1007/s41748-024-00502-0 · 被引用次数：17 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Geophysics and Gravity Measurements

Abstract Drought stands as a prevalent weather-related natural climatic disaster on a global scale. This study employs twenty GCMs from CMIP6 to investigate hydrological drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and intensity) across Africa under four SSPs (shared socioeconomic pathway) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 spanning three designated periods: 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term). The (SPEI) at a 12-month scale and employs bias correction on the multi-model ensemble mean extracted from GCMs of the CMIP6 project via cumulative distribution function (CDF). Mann–Kendall approach was implemented for trend and the SPEI-12-based drought trend from 1979 to 2014 displays a negative trajectory of − 0.05/a for Africa, with similar figures for specific regions: Northern Africa (NAF) at − 0.06/a, Sahara (SAH) at − 0.05/a, Western Africa (WAF) at − 0.01/a, Central Africa (CAF) at − 0.02/a, Eastern Africa (EAF) at − 0.06/a, and Southern Africa (SAF) at − 0.03/a. Notably, the severe drought characteristics are manifested as a 6-month duration, 12 occurrences, and an intensity of − 1.9 events over Africa. The highest duration and frequency are observed over NAF at 7.5-month and 15.1 occurrences, respectively, while the most extreme intensity of − 2.3 events is noted over SAH. In addition, future droughts are expected to be lower frequency, extended duration, and more intense. Extreme scenarios indicate values of − 2.1, − 2....