Future directions for deep ocean climate science and evidence-based decision making

作者：Helen Pillar, Elizabeth D. Hetherington, Lisa A. Levin, Laura Cimoli, Jonathan Maitland Lauderdale, Jesse van der Grient, Kristen Johannes, Patrick Heimbach, Leslie Smith, Charles Izuma Addey, Pavanee Annasawmy, Sandra Antonio, Narissa Bax, Henri F. Drake, Elva Escobar‐Briones, Laura G. Elsler, Mara Freilich, Natalya D. Gallo, F Girard, Matthew J. Harke, Daniel O. B. Jones, Siddhi Joshi, Xinfeng Liang, Paige J. Maroni, Otmane Sarti, Paris V. Stefanoudis, Olivier Sulpis, David S. Trossman · 发表于：Frontiers in Climate · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3389/fclim.2024.1445694 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena、Marine Biology and Ecology Research、Marine and coastal ecosystems

Introduction A defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues across the reports, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view. Methods Here we seek to address this in the latest, sixth assessment report (AR6) for one such component—the deep ocean—by summarizing major uncertainties (based on discussions of low confidence issues or gaps) regarding its role in our changing climate system. The goal is to identify key research priorities to improve IPCC confidence levels in deep ocean systems and facilitate the dissemination of IPCC results regarding potentially high impact deep ocean processes to decision-makers. This will accelerate improvement of global climate projections and aid in informing efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. An analysis of 3,000 pages across the six selected AR6 reports revealed 219 major science gaps related to the deep ocean. These were categorized by climate stressor and nature of impacts. Results Half of these are biological science gaps, primarily surrounding our understanding of changes in ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and primary productivity. The remaining science gaps are related to uncertainties in the physical (32%) and biogeochemical (15%) ocean states and p...