Quantification and multiscenario simulation of ecological compensation and economic development coupling relationships in the YRB, China

作者：Dongjie Guan, Qin Xi, Xiangyuan Su, Xinyu Liu, Lilei Zhou, Zhifeng Liu · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112760 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Environmental Conservation and Management、Climate Change Policy and Economics、Water resources management and optimization

• The calculation method of EC quota in the YRB has been established. • Region’s ecological compensation that showed the east over west was all increased. • The CCD of EC and ED was 0.42 ∼ 0.44 and would show a better trend in the future. • The trends of EC and ED from 2020 to 2050 were simulated under multiple scenarios. • By comparison with targets, SSP1 would be the optimal development scenario. Human activities frequently interfere with the natural environment, and environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. How to characterize the ecological compensation (EC) standard and how to quantify the coupling relationship between EC and economic development (ED) are still problems that need to be solved in research on EC mechanisms. We used 19 provincial-level administrative regions in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) as the research area, calculated the EC standard based on the opportunity cost method, and analyzed the changes in the EC time series. The EC and ED coupling stage and coupling coordination type are determined by introducing the coupling coordination degree model in the YRB. Five scenarios, i.e., sustainability (SSP1), middle of the road (SSP2), regional rivalry (SSP3), inequality (SSP4), and fossil-fueled development (SSP5), were set on the basis of system dynamics and the shared socioeconomic pathways framework to simulate the evolutionary trends of EC and ED in the YRB. The results showed that (1) both direct and indirect opportunity costs in the YRB ...