How to Achieve the Ecological Sustainability Goal of Ecologically Fragile Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multi-Scenario Simulation of Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomerations

作者：Zeyuan Gong, Wei Liu, Jing Guo, Su Yi, Yapei Gao, Wenjun Bu, Jun Ren, Cheng-Ying Li · 发表于：Land · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3390/land13111730 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Environmental Quality and Pollution

The future of the ecologically fragile areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a matter of concern. With the implementation of the Western Development Strategy, the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration (LXUA) has encountered conflicts and compromises between urban expansion, ecological protection, and farmland protection policies in the rapid development of the past 2 decades. These deeply affect the land use layout, making the ecological sustainable development of the ecologically fragile areas of the QTP a complex and urgent issue. Exploring the impact of different policy-led land use patterns on regional ecosystem services is of great significance for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas and the formulation of relevant policies. Following the logical main line of “history-present-future”, the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, which explores potential factors of historical land use, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model were used to construct three future scenarios for the modernization stage in 2031 dominated by different land use policies in this study. These scenarios include the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BS), the Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EP). The study analyzed and predicted land use changes in the LXUA from 2001 to 2031 and assessed carbon storage, habitat quality at different time points, and water yield in 2021. The results indicated that ...