Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China

作者：Jin Guo, Dongyang Xiao, Xialing Sun, Fuchen Guo, Sha Xue, Liangxin Fan · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112728 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Climate change impacts on agriculture

• A framework of drought assessment of the Loess Plateau was developed. • Drought risk index of SSP2-4.5 is the lowest of four scenarios. • SSP1-2.6 is the most reliable Shared-socioeconomic pathway across four scenarios. • Planning ecological buffer zones for endemic biomes can mitigate drought risk. Quantitative understanding of drought risks on arid region is vital in drought risk mitigation and ecological restoration. However, no study has been conducted on the drought risk variance between different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and China’s dual carbon goals scenario on arid region. This study evaluates drought risks of Loess Plateau between the year of 1980–2100 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 data sets and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction drought risk assessment framework. The average values of the drought risk index in four scenarios during the projection period (2030–2100) are 0.29 (±0.026) for the low carbon emission scenario, 0.257 (±0.019) for the China’s dual carbon target scenario, 0.232 (±0.057) for the medium carbon emission scenario, and 0.248 (±0.059) for the high carbon emission scenario, which are higher than the historical period (i.e. 1980: 0.210; 2020: 0.215). Accordingly, the Loess Plateau will have severe drought risks in the future. In the zone of increased drought risk indices on the Loess Plateau, the areas of woodland and croplands increased, whereas the area of grasslands i...