The spatio-temporal evolution of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impact on famine

作者：Siying Chen, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, Liang Emlyn Yang · 发表于：Climate of the past · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.5194/cp-20-2287-2024 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Climate Change and Health Impacts、Climate variability and models

Abstract. Investigations of past extreme climate events offer insights into the interactions between natural forces, ecosystems, and human societies. The Chongzhen drought, which occurred from 1627 to 1644 CE, stands as possibly the most severe drought in central and eastern China over the last 1500 years, remarkable for its duration and extent and the vast number of people affected. Concurrently, a widespread famine emerged, triggering peasant uprisings that are argued as having contributed to the Ming Dynasty's downfall. This study extracted 1802 drought records and 1977 famine records from Chinese historical documents to reconstruct the spatio-temporal progression of the drought and its impact on famine. The records provided drought information of season, duration, and intensity, which enabled a classification of four drought severity levels. Then kernel density estimation reconstructed the spatial pattern of drought and the drought kernel density index (DKDI) series in sub-regions. Between 1627 and 1644, the drought affected most of central and eastern China. The severe drought zone was mainly located north of 29° N, shifting from the northwestern region to the northern region and then expanding to the south. The development of drought in different regions was not synchronized. The northwestern region faced the earliest drought outbreak, which eased in the middle period and peaked in 1640. The northern region's DKDI series forms a single-peaked curve, indicating a gradual...