Iron Deficiency: Global Trends and Projections from 1990 to 2050

作者：Li Wang, Dan Liang, Hengqian Huangfu, Xinfu Shi, Shuang Liu, Panpan Zhong, Zhen Luo, Changwen Ke, Ying‐Si Lai · 发表于：Nutrients · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3390/nu16203434 · 被引用次数：27 · 研究领域：Iron Metabolism and Disorders、Hemoglobinopathies and Related Disorders、Erythropoietin and Anemia Treatment

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) remains the leading cause of anemia, affects a vast number of persons globally, and continues to be a significant global health burden. Comprehending the patterns of ID burden is essential for developing targeted public health policies. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study for the years 1990-2021, the XGBoost model was constructed to predict prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for the period 2022-2050, based on key demographic variables. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were applied to interpret the contributions of each variable to the model's predictions. Additionally, the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on both prevalence and DALYs. The relationship between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and ID's age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) as well as the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) was also analyzed to assess the influence of socioeconomic development on disease burden. RESULTS: The global prevalent cases of ID grew from 984.61 million in 1990 to 1270.64 million in 2021 and are projected to reach 1439.99 million by 2050. Similarly, global DALYs from ID increased from 28.41 million in 1990 to 32.32 million in 2021, with a projected rise to 36.13 million by 2050. The ASPR declined from 18,204/100,000 in 1990 to 16,433/100,000 in 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -0.36% over this period. ...