Projecting future excess deaths associated with extreme precipitation events in China under changing climate: an integrated modelling study

作者：Jie Ban, Kailai Lu, Yuanyuan Liu, Jiawei Zang, Zhen Zhou, Can Zhang, Zhao Liu, Jianbin Huang, Yidan Chen, Xuejie Gao, Ying Xu, Can Wang, Wenjia Cai, Peng Gong, Yong Luo, Tiantian Li · 发表于：The Lancet Planetary Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00202-x · 被引用次数：17 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Climate variability and models、Agricultural risk and resilience

BACKGROUND: Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear. METHODS: We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, a business-as-usual scenario) populations (S1, low fertility rate; S2, medium fertility rate; and S3, high fertility rate). We quantified the climate and population contributions to the changes of future excess deaths nationwide and by climatic zones. FINDINGS: Compared with the non-extreme precipitation days, the percentage increase of deaths associated with exposure to extreme precipitation days is 13·0% (95% CI 7·0-19·3) for accidental cause, 4·3% (2·0-6·6) for circulatory disease, and 6·8% (2·8-10·9) for respiratory disease. The number of annual average excess deaths related to extreme precip...