River Hydrological Regime Changes and Their Attribution: A Case Study in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Using a Multi‐Model Approach

作者：Hongxiang Wang, Jiaqi Lan, Ning He, Xuyang Jiao, Handong Ye, Chaohui Sun, Gaozhen Wang, Wenxian Guo · 发表于：River Research and Applications · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1002/rra.4377 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Fish Ecology and Management Studies、Hydrological Forecasting Using AI

ABSTRACT A comprehensive quantitative evaluation framework was used to analyze the driving factors affecting the hydrological conditions and runoff changes in the upper Yangtze River basin across multiple time scales (annual, seasonal, and monthly). This study focuses on utilizing the LSTM model and the WEP‐L model for the quantitative assessment of factors influencing runoff changes. Additionally, we calculated the IHA indicators for actual runoff and the LSTM model‐simulated runoff and conducted a comparative analysis using the range of variability approach (RVA) to study changes in the overall hydrological regime of the river. Following an abrupt change, the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased by 6.6%, and the ecological response of the basin showed a negative trend, as reflected in the changes of five sets of hydrological‐ecological indicators. The contributions of various driving forces exhibited significant differences across different time scales. On an annual scale, the LSTM model indicated that runoff was predominantly influenced by human activities with a contribution rate of 55%, whereas the WEP‐L model indicated that climate factors were the dominant influence, with a contribution rate of 75%. On a seasonal scale, the WEP‐L model showed that runoff was more influenced by climate in summer and autumn, with relative contribution rates of 68% and 73%, respectively. Conversely, the LSTM model showed that runoff was more influenced by human activ...