Performance of specific CMIP6 GCMs for simulating the historical rainfall and temperature climatology of Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

作者：Tadele Melese, Temesgen Gashaw, Haimanote K. Bayabil, Pieter van Oel, Abeyou W. Worqlul, Yihun T. Dile, Abebe Demissie Chukalla · 发表于：Scientific African · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.sciaf.2024.e02387 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Climate variability and models

This study aims to evaluate the performance of 7 rainfall and 6 temperature products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global climate models (GCMs) for simulating the rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) climatology of the Lake Tana sub-basin (Ethiopia) during 1995 – 2014 periods from daily to annual time scales. The rational of this study is to identify the best performing GCMs for projection of future climate as well as for using those models for climate adaptation and mitigation plans in the study area. Through wide-ranging evaluation methods using the Comprehensive Rating Index (CRI) and Taylor diagram, our study contributes by highlighting the top performing GCMs across different temporal scales for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin separately. The findings indicated that EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and ACCESS-ESM1-5 at daily time scale, and CNRM-CM6-1, BCC-CSM2-MR and EC-Earth3 at monthly timescale are the best performing models for simulating precipitation. The best performing models for simulating MAM (March-May) seasonal precipitation are BCC-CSM2-MR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, EC-Earth3 while ACCESS-ESM1-5, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and EC-Earth3 are good at for JJAS (June-September) precipitation. BCC-CSM2-MR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, EC-Earth3 and ACCESS-ESM1-5 are best performing models for simulating annual rainfall. Conversely, MIROC6 exhibits relatively weaker performance for simulating rainfall across all the studied temporal scales. For T...