Carbon peak prediction for differentiated cities from a low-carbon perspective: Key factors, scenario analysis, and low-carbon pathways

作者：Ke Pan, Bin Liu, Jie Luo, Qinxiang Wang, Jiajia Li, Long Tang, Xinyu Xia, Yang Wei · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112629 · 被引用次数：14 · 研究领域：Air Quality and Health Impacts、Urban Transport and Accessibility、Environmental Impact and Sustainability

• 21 cities (prefectures) in Sichuan Province were divided into 4 categories. • Considering the factors of government intervention, four scenarios are set. • The bottom-up carbon emission scenario analysis framework was established. • Explore low-carbon development path from the perspective of urban differentiation. Cities constitute a critical component of the “dual carbon” strategy, highlighting the importance of examining the carbon emission trends within various city categories to formulate a low-carbon development path. In this paper, 21 cities (prefectures) in Sichuan province were divided into 4 categories (service-based cities, resource-based cities, industry-based cities, and other cities) through K-means clustering, and the differences in driving factors of carbon emissions in different types of cities were explored. At the same time, baseline scenarios, technological innovation scenarios, controlled development scenarios, and mandatory emission reduction scenarios were set up to dynamically simulate the evolution path of urban carbon emissions in the next 30 years from the bottom-up. The results show that: (1) Input scale is the main driving factor for carbon emission growth in Sichuan province, while input carbon intensity is the leading factor for carbon emission reduction. Environmental input and population scale have opposite effects on carbon emission of different urban types. (2) Resource-based cities face challenges in completing the phased goal of “carbon p...