Multi-scenario simulation prediction of land use in Nanchang based on network robustness analysis

作者：Xiaojian Wei, Li Zhao, Fuqing Zhang, Yuanping Xia · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112599 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation、Environmental Quality and Pollution

• Identify important ecological sources by assessing ecosystem service functions and ecological sensitivity. • Robustness analysis was used to analyze the stability of the ecological network structure across multiple scenarios. • Combining the ecological network structure, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use situation of Nanchang in 2030. • Ecological protection scenario can effectively ensure the sustainable development of cities. In recent decades, rapid and disorderly urbanization has led to the fragmentation of habitat patches, placing the biodiversity of these areas and their surroundings at significant risk. By exploring the stability of ecological network and predicting the spatial change pattern of land use in the future, the contradiction between regional development and ecological protection could be effectively alleviated. Therefore, we selected Nanchang as the research object, identified important ecological sources through assessing ecological services and sensitivity, identified potential ecological corridors and stepping stones with the help of circuit theory to conduct stepping-stone ecological networks, and utilized robustness analysis to evaluate the stability of the networks under different scenarios. Finally, we used the PLUS model to predict future land use change in Nanchang. The results showed that 19 ecological sources covering a total area of 1537.99 km 2 were identified in Nanchang, with resistance values showing a trend of being high in ...