Modeling cheatgrass distribution, abundance, and response to climate change as a function of soil microclimate

作者：Tyson J. Terry, Stuart P. Hardegree, Peter B. Adler · 发表于：Ecological Applications · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1002/eap.3028 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Rangeland and Wildlife Management、Fire effects on ecosystems、Species Distribution and Climate Change

Abstract Exotic annual grass invasions in water‐limited systems cause degradation of native plant and animal communities and increased fire risk. The life history of invasive annual grasses allows for high sensitivity to interannual variability in weather. Current distribution and abundance models derived from remote sensing, however, provide only a coarse understanding of how species respond to weather, making it difficult to anticipate how climate change will affect vulnerability to invasion. Here, we derived germination covariates (rate sums) from mechanistic germination and soil microclimate models to quantify the favorability of soil microclimate for cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) establishment and growth across 30 years at 2662 sites across the sagebrush steppe system in the western United States. Our approach, using four bioclimatic covariates alone, predicted cheatgrass distribution with accuracy comparable to previous models fit using many years of remotely‐sensed imagery. Accuracy metrics from our out‐of‐sample testing dataset indicate that our model predicted distribution well (72% overall accuracy) but explained patterns of abundance poorly ( R 2 = 0.22). Climatic suitability for cheatgrass presence depended on both spatial (mean) and temporal (annual anomaly) variation of fall and spring rate sums. Sites that on average have warm and wet fall soils and warm and wet spring soils (high rate sums during these periods) were predicted to have a high abundance of che...