The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis

作者：Colin Summerhayes, Jan Zalasiewicz, Martin J. Head, James P. M. Syvitski, Anthony D. Barnosky, Alejandro Cearreta, Barbara Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Jacques Grinevald, Reinhold Leinfelder, Francine M.G. McCarthy, John McNeill, Yoshiki Saito, Michael Wagreich, Colin N. Waters, Mark Williams, Jens Zinke · 发表于：Global and Planetary Change · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104568 · 被引用次数：45 · 研究领域：Global Energy and Sustainability Research、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution

We synthesize research from complementary scientific fields to address the likely future extent and duration of the proposed Anthropocene epoch. Intensification of human-forced climate change began from about 1970 onwards with steepening increases in greenhouse gases, ocean acidification , global temperature and sea level, along with ice loss. The resulting distinction between relatively stable Holocene climatic conditions and those of the proposed Anthropocene epoch is substantial, with many aspects irreversible. The still-rising trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions is leading to yet greater and more permanent divergence of the Anthropocene from the Holocene Earth System. We focus here on the effects of the ensuing climate transformation and its impact on the likely duration of this novel state of the Earth System. Given the magnitude and rapid rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), its long lifetime in the atmosphere, and the present disequilibrium in Earth's energy budget (expressed as the Earth's Energy Imbalance, or EEI), both temperatures and sea level must continue to rise – even with carbon emissions lowered to net zero (where anthropogenic CO 2 emissions = anthropogenic CO 2 removals) – until the energy budget balance is eventually restored. Even if net zero were achieved immediately, elevated global temperatures would persist for at least several tens of millennia, with expected levels of warmth by the end of this century not seen since the early Late Pliocen...