Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System version 1.0 (SOIPS v1.0): description of the system and evaluation of synoptic-scale sea ice forecasts

作者：Fu Zhao, Xi Liang, Zhongxiang Tian, Ming Li, Na Liu, Chengyan Liu · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-17-6867-2024 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics、Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena、Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Abstract. An operational synoptic-scale sea ice forecasting system for the Southern Ocean, namely the Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System (SOIPS), has been developed to support ship navigation in the Antarctic sea ice zone. Practical application of the SOIPS forecasts had been implemented for the 38th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition for the first time. The SOIPS is configured on an Antarctic regional sea ice–ocean–ice shelf coupled model and an ensemble-based localized error subspace transform Kalman filter data assimilation model. Daily near-real-time satellite sea ice concentration observations are assimilated into the SOIPS to update sea ice concentration and thickness in the 12 ensemble members of the model state. By evaluating the SOIPS performance in forecasting sea ice metrics in a complete melt–freeze cycle from 1 October 2021 to 30 September 2022, this study shows that the SOIPS can provide reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasts. In comparison with non-assimilated EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) data, annual mean root mean square errors in the sea ice concentration forecasts at a lead time of up to 168 h are lower than 0.19, and the integrated ice edge errors in the sea ice forecasts in most freezing months at lead times of 24 and 72 h maintain around 0.5×106 km2 and below 1.0×106 km2, respectively. With respect to the scarce Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) observations, the mean absolute errors ...