Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study

作者：Timothy Russell, Hermaleigh Townsley, Joel Hellewell, Joshua Gahir, Marianne Shawe‐Taylor, David Greenwood, David Hodgson, Agnieszka Hobbs, Giulia Dowgier, Rebecca Penn, Theo Sanderson, Phoebe Stevenson-Leggett, James Bazire, Ruth Harvey, Ashley S Fowler, Murad Miah, Callie Smith, Mauro Miranda, Philip Bawumia, Harriet V Mears, Lorin Adams, Emine Hatipoglu, Nicola O’Reilly, Scott Warchal, Karen Ambrose, Amy Strange, Gavin Kelly, Svend Kjar, Padmasayee Papineni, Tumena Corrah, Richard Gilson, Vincenzo Libri, George Kassiotis, S.J. Gamblin, Nicola S. Lewis, Bryan Williams, Charles Swanton, Sonia Gandhi, Rupert Beale, Mary Wu, David L.V. Bauer, Edward J Carr, Emma Wall, Adam J. Kucharski · 发表于：The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00484-5 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research、vaccines and immunoinformatics approaches、COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Summary Background The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing. Methods Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals–Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per wee...