Evaluating ecological conservation effectiveness of security patterns under multiple scenarios: A case study of Hubei Province

作者：Chong Zhao, Shiyu Wu, Lin Yang, Yixiao Wu, Pengnan Xiao, Jie Xu, Yujie Liu · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112528 · 被引用次数：31 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation

• Constructed a more realistic ecosystem development model based on circuit theory. • The projected land use and cover changes in 2035 under the four development scenarios provide more adequate data support. • The ecological security pattern restriction scenario (S4) has the highest ecological safety index. • S4 has the best ecological effect and the widest range of high-grade habitats. With the development of the social economy, ecological environment damage has become increasingly serious, and how to better protect ecological security has gradually attracted people’s attention. This paper takes Hubei Province in China as the research object, using the PLUS model version 1.4 to design four development scenarios to predict land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in 2035: the natural development scenario (S1), the cultivated land protection scenario (S2), the ecological protection area restriction scenario (S3), and the ecological security pattern (ESP) restriction scenario (S4). The study evaluates the ecological effects under these four different scenarios using Conefor Sensinode 2.6 software, Fragstats v4.2.1 software, and the InVEST model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) ESP has better ecological landscape connectivity. (2) Comparing the ecological security indices of the four scenarios, they are 0.5378, 0.5288, 0.5318, and 0.5405, respectively, with the S4 scenario showing the best protection effect. (3) Comparing the habitat quality of the four scenarios, high-grade h...