Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation

作者：Marjolijn Haasnoot, Valeria Di Fant, Jan Kwakkel, Judy Lawrence · 发表于：Global Environmental Change · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102907 · 被引用次数：116 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Sustainability and Climate Change Governance、Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration

• We provide lessons on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches. • Adaptive pathways analyses are increasingly applied in practice globally. • Methods include narratives, modelling, workshops, forecasting and backcasting. • Pathways have opened up space for understanding of risks and solutions. • Ways forward include accounting for interacting pathways and transformative adaptation. Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for diff...