Long-term changes of methane emissions from rice cultivation during 2000 – 2060 in China: Trends, driving factors, predictions and policy implications

作者：Nanchi Shen, Jiani Tan, Wenjin Wang, Wenbo Xue, Yangjun Wang, Ling Huang, Gang Yan, Yu Song, Li Li · 发表于：Environment International · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.envint.2024.108958 · 被引用次数：40 · 研究领域：Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis、Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena

• Methane emissions from rice cultivation in China are estimated at a range of 6.21–6.57 Tg yr −1 over the past two decades. • Reduction in the rate of straw added could significantly lower methane emissions by 9.4 %–10 %. • Policies focusing on production or demand can increase CH 4-rice by 0.3 % to 5.6 %. • Structural adjustments and regional cooperation effectively control CH 4-rice and promote regional development. • Dynamic rice cultivation adjustments could reduce CH 4-rice by 8.9 %–12.0 % by 2060. Regional budget assessments of methane (CH 4 ) are critical for future climate and environmental management. CH 4 emissions from rice cultivation (CH 4-rice ) constitute one of the most significant sources. However, previous studies mainly focus on historical emission estimates and lack consideration of future changes in CH 4-rice under climate change or anthropogenic policy intervention, which hampers our understanding of long-term trends and the implementation of targeted emission reduction efforts. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of CH 4-rice over the past two decades, using an integrated method to identify the major drivers and predict future emissions under climate change scenarios and policy perspectives. Results indicate that the CH 4-rice emissions in China ranged between 6.21 and 6.57 Tg yr −1 over the past two decades, with a spatial distribution characterized by decreases in the south and increases in the north, associated with economic develo...