Occurrence and potential diffusion of pine wilt disease mediated by insect vectors in China under climate change

作者：Ruihe Gao, Lei Liu, Shiming Fan, Wenfang Zheng, Ruyuan Liu, Zhiwei Zhang, Ruifen Huang, Lijuan Zhao, Juan Shi · 发表于：Pest Management Science · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1002/ps.8335 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Forest Insect Ecology and Management、Phytoplasmas and Hemiptera pathogens、Mosquito-borne diseases and control

Abstract BACKGROUND Pine wilt disease (PWD), a major international quarantined forest pest, causes serious ecological and economic damage to Pinus species in Asia and Europe. In China, PWD has spread northeasterly and northwesterly beyond its original northern limits. Consequently, an evaluation of the insect vector‐mediated occurrence and potential diffusion of PWD is needed to identify important transmission routes and control the spread of disease. RESULTS An optimized MaxEnt model was used to assess the current and future geographical distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its insect vectors in China. The predicted suitable area for B. xylophilus colonization is currently 212.32 × 10 4 km 2 and mainly concentrated in Central, East, Southwest and South China, although is anticipated to include the northwestern regions of China in the future. As for the insect vectors, Monochamus alternatus and M. saltuarius are expected to spread toward the northwest and southwest, respectively. The maximum predicted dispersion area of PWD mediated by M. alternatus , M. saltuarius and both species was 91.85 × 10 4 , 218.76 × 10 4 and 29.99 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively, with potential diffusion areas being anticipated to increase in the future. Both the suitable probabilities and areas of B. xylophilus and its insect vectors were found to vary substantially along the latitudinal gradient, with the latitudinal range of these species being predicted to expand in the future. CONCLUSION T...