Development and Validation of a Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Complications From Pediatric Multiple Magnet Ingestion: A Large Retrospective Study

作者：Yizhen Luo, Xiongjian Cui, Jianli Zhou, Yijiang Zhuang, Chenrui Zheng, Qiru Su, Yungen Gan, Zhiyong Li, Hongwu Zeng · 发表于：The American Journal of Gastroenterology · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.14309/ajg.0000000000002983 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Foreign Body Medical Cases、Intestinal and Peritoneal Adhesions、Esophageal and GI Pathology

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to develop and validate a reliable nomogram based on clinical factors to predict complications associated with pediatric multiple magnet ingestion, addressing the urgency and controversy surrounding its management. METHODS: Patients aged 0-18 years with multiple magnet ingestion diagnosed at the Shenzhen Children's Hospital between January 2017 and December 2023 were enrolled. Clinical data were analyzed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multifactor logistic regression analyses to screen for risk factors. A model was constructed, and a nomogram was plotted. Model performance was evaluated and internally validated using the area under the curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and 1,000 bootstraps. We calculated the optimal cutoff value, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS: Of the 146 patients, 57 (39.0%) experienced complications. The nomogram included age, multiple ingestions, vomiting, abdominal pain, and abdominal tenderness. The AUC was 0.941, and the internally validated AUC was 0.930. The optimal cutoff value selected as a predictive value was 0.534, with a sensitivity of 82.5%, specificity of 93.3%, positive predictive value of 88.7%, negative predictive value of 89.3%, and accuracy of 89.0%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of 0.750. The calibration plot exhibited h...