Urban Fire Risk Dynamics and Mitigation Strategies in Shanghai: Integrating Spatial Analysis and Game Theory

作者：Manqing Yao, Deshun Zhang, Yingying Chen, Yujia Liu, Mohamed Elsadek · 发表于：Land · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3390/land13081125 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Fire effects on ecosystems、Disaster Management and Resilience、Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics

In recent decades, the increasing frequency of urban fires, driven by urban functional enhancements and climate change, has posed a growing threat to metropolitan sustainability. This study investigates the temporal and spatial characteristics of fire incidents in Shanghai from 2019 to 2023. Using satellite fire point data and official government records, kernel density analysis and wavelet analysis were employed to analyze the time series and spatial distribution of fire data. Subsequently, eleven primary factors influencing urban fire occurrence were identified, encompassing probability, regional characteristics, and hazard sources. A combined methodology of subjective and objective weights with game theory was used to generate a fire risk assessment at a 1 × 1 km2 grid scale. Furthermore, the spatial distribution characteristics of the assessments were analyzed. The results reveal that the downtown area exhibits the highest intensity of urban fires in terms of spatial domain, with a decreasing intensity towards the suburbs. Temporally, fire frequency demonstrates significant periodicity at an 18a time scale, while clear seasonal fluctuations and periodicity are observed at a 16-22a time scale, with higher occurrences in spring and winter. The study identifies typical aggregation patterns of urban fires, with high-risk centers in downtown Shanghai. Considering the impact of climate change and human activities, high-risk areas may gradually expand to adjacent urban suburbs, ...