A Hybrid Machine Learning/Physics‐Based Modeling Framework for 2‐Week Extended Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

作者：Hao‐Yan Liu, Zhe‐Min Tan, Yuqing Wang, Jianping Tang, Masaki Satoh, Lili Lei, Jian‐Feng Gu, Yi Zhang, Gaozhen Nie, Qi‐Zhi Chen · 发表于：Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1029/2024jh000207 · 被引用次数：31 · 研究领域：Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing

Abstract Prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) beyond a week is challenging but of great importance for disaster prevention and mitigation. We propose a hybrid machine learning (ML)/physics‐based modeling framework to extend TC forecasts to 2 weeks. This framework integrates a recently launched ML‐based global weather prediction model (Pangu) and the high‐resolution physics‐based regional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The Pangu model shows promise in enhancing the accuracy of predictions for large‐scale circulation and TC tracks, while the high‐resolution WRF model is capable of capturing the core processes underlying TC evolution. To capitalize on the complementary strengths of both the Pangu and WRF models in predicting TCs, the framework comprises three key components: downscaling the Pangu model using the WRF model, adjusting large‐scale circulation through spectral nudging driven by the Pangu model forecasts, and updating sea surface temperature using an ocean mixed‐layer model. These components also ensure the framework's feasibility for real‐time TC forecasting. The prediction skill of the framework has been demonstrated for five long‐lived TCs across various basins from 2018 to 2023. Results indicate that the hybrid ML/physics‐based modeling framework decreased the 2‐week mean TC track and intensity errors by 59% and 32% compared to the global numerical weather prediction models, by 2% and 59% compared to the ERA5‐driven Pangu model, and by 32% and 23%...