Study on the change of global ecological distribution of Nicotiana tabacum L. based on MaxEnt model

作者：Linxi Jia, Mingming Sun, Mingrui He, Mingfeng Yang, Meng Zhang, Hua Yu · 发表于：Frontiers in Plant Science · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3389/fpls.2024.1371998 · 被引用次数：19 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Remote Sensing in Agriculture

Nicotiana tabacum L. (tobacco) has extremely high economic value, medicinal value, scientific research value and some other uses. Though it has been widely cultivated throughout the world, classification and change of its suitable habitats is not that clear, especially in the context of global warming. In order to achieve rational cultivation and sustainable development of tobacco, current (average from 1970-2000) and future (2070, average from 2061-2080) potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana tabacum L. were forecasted with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS platform based on 854 occurrence data and 22 environmental factors in this study. The results revealed that mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), annual precipitation (bio12), solar radiation in September (Srad9), and clay content (CLAY) were the four decisive environment variables for the distribution of Nicotiana tabacum L. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats of Nicotiana tabacum L. were mainly distributed in south-central Europe, south-central North America, most parts of South America, central Africa, south and southeast Asia, and southeast coast of Australia, and only 13.7% of these areas were highly suitable. By the year 2070, suitable habitats under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios would all increase with the largest increase found under SSP3-7.0 scenario, while suitable habitats would reduce under SSP2-4.5 climate scenario. Globally, the center of mass of suitable habitats would mi...