Potential population-level effects of HIV self-test distribution among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal: a mathematical modelling analysis

作者：Romain Silhol, Romain Silhol, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Nirali Soni, Arlette Simo Fotso, Nicolas Rouveau, Anthony Vautier, Clémence Doumenc-Aïdara, Olivier Geoffroy, Kouassi N’Guessan, Younoussa Sidibé, Odé Kanku Kabemba, Pauline Dama Ndeye, Pauline Dama Ndeye, Christinah Mukandavire, Peter Vickerman, Abdelaye Keita, Cheikh Tidiane Ndour, Joseph Larmarange, Marie-Claude Boily, Elvis Amani, Kéba Badiane, Céline Bayac, Anne Bekelynck, Marie-Claude Boily, Sokhna Boye, Guillaume Breton, Marc d’Elbée, Alice Desclaux, Annabel Desgrées du Loû, Papa Moussa Diop, E. Ehui, Graham F. Medley, Kévin Jean, Abdelaye Keita, Arsène Kra Kouassi, Odette Ky‐Zerbo, Joseph Larmarange, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Raoul Moh, Rosine Mosso, Cheikh Tidiane Ndour, David Paltiel, Dolorès Pourette, Nicolas Rouveau, Romain Silhol, Romain Silhol, Arlette Simo Fotso, Fern Terris‐Prestholt, Métogara Mohamed Traoré, Clémence Doumenc-Aïdara, Olivier Geoffroy, Odé Kanku Kabemba, Anthony Vautier, Armand Abokon, Camille Anoma, Annie Diokouri, Blaise Kouamé, Venance Kouakou, Odette Koffi, Alain Kpolo, Josiane Tety, Yacouba Traore, Jules Bagendabanga, Djelika Berthé, Daouda Diakité, Mahamadou Diakité, Youssouf Diallo, Minta Daouda, Septime Hessou, Saidou Kanambaye, A Kanouté, Bintou Dembélé Keïta, Dramane Koné, Mariam Koné, Almoustapha Issiaka Maïga, Aminata Saran Keita, Fadiala Sidibé, Madani Tall, Adam Yattassaye Camara, Abdoulaye Sanogo, Idrissa Bâ, Papa Amadou Niang Diallo, Fatou Fall, Ndèye Fatou Ngom Gueye, Sidy Ndiaye, Alassane Moussa Niang, Oumar Samba, Safiatou Thiam, Nguissali Turpin, Seydou Bouaré, Cheick Sidi Camara, Brou Alexis Kouadio, Sophie Sarrassat, Souleyman Sow, Agnes Eponon Ehua, Amélé Kouvahe, Marie-Anne Montaufray, Pauline Dama Ndeye · 发表于：The Lancet HIV · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2352-3018(24)00126-7 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions、HIV Research and Treatment、HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk

BACKGROUND: During 2019-21, the AutoTest VIH, Libre d'accéder à la connaissance de son Statut (ATLAS) programme distributed around 380 000 HIV self-testing kits to key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and their partners, in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal. We aimed to estimate the effects of the ATLAS programme and national scale-up of HIV self-test distribution on HIV diagnosis, HIV treatment coverage, HIV incidence, and HIV-related mortality. METHODS: We adapted a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission in Côte d'Ivoire, parameterised and fitted to country-specific demographic, behavioural, HIV epidemiological, and intervention data in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal separately during 1980-2020. We simulated dynamics of new HIV infections, HIV diagnoses, and HIV-related deaths within scenarios with and without HIV self-test distribution among key populations. Models were separately parameterised and fitted to country-specific sets of epidemiological and intervention outcomes (stratified by sex, risk, age group, and HIV status, if available) over time within a Bayesian framework. We estimated the effects on the absolute increase in the proportion of people with HIV diagnosed at the end of 2021 for the ATLAS-only scenario and at the end of 2028 and 2038 for the HIV self-testing scale-up scenario. We estimated cumulative numbers of additional HIV diagnoses and initiations of antiretroviral therapy and the proportion and abso...